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The experts' picks
Five top value managers told us what it takes to get their attention. Herewith, their nominations for value buys
October 18, 2001
Tim McElvaine
(www.mackenziefinancial.com)
Vancouver's Tim McElvaine is chief investment officer of The Cundill Group and lead manager of the Mackenzie Cundill Value Fund. His selections reflect the international scope of his investment portfolio. "We deal in stocks about which people say, 'Yes, they're cheap, but . . .' Then we see if we can eliminate the 'but.'"
- Cable & Wireless PLC
With a US$14-billion market capitalization, U.K.-based Cable & Wireless has established strong markets in data and telephony. C&W has liquid assets of 290 pence a share. Shares are currently at 325, about 20 per cent of their former high. The company generated 40 pence of operating cash flow this year.
- Coca-Cola West Japan Company, Limited
The biggest bottler in Japan, it trades around 2,700 yen per share. It has liquid assets of about 1,000 yen per share, so we're paying about 1,500 yen per share for the business or about three times operating cash flow. The norm is about eight times. It is the dominant firm in the industry, and we're paying a low valuation.
- Lion Corporation
It's the Japanese equivalent of a small Colgate-Palmolive. It holds 40 per cent of the market in Japan for toothpaste and dental products, 30 per cent of the market for detergents and 20 per cent for cleansers and household cleaning products. With a net asset value of 600 yen per share, it has 200 yen in liquid assets, and it
is priced in the high 400s. It trades
at less than five times operating
cash flows.
- NIPPONKOA Insurance Company Limited
Formed in April 2001 from the merger of Koa Fire & Marine Insurance Company and Nippon Fire & Marine Insurance Company, it provides fire, marine, personal accident and automobile insurance and related services through 345 branches in Japan and overseas. Its stock sells at half the company's net asset value. Paying 50 cents on the dollar, there's almost no risk. The main question is how management applies shareholder capital.
- Videsh Sanchar Nigam Limited
This company holds a monopoly on long-distance telephony in India. The industry in that country is now being deregulated, so the business will change substantially over the next few years. Shares are trading around US$11.75, about 25 per cent
of their former high. Liquid assets amount to about $13 a share, and operating cash flow amounts to about $2 a share.
Irwin Michael
(www.abcfunds.com)
Irwin Michael is founder and portfolio manager of ABC Funds in Toronto. "My family and I are the largest single-unit holders in the fund," he says. "It's my wealth, my job, my livelihood."
- Canadian Natural Resources Limited
A senior oil and natural gas exploration, development and production company based in Calgary with operations in Western Canada, the North Sea and offshore West Africa, it has good management, but trades at low multiples. Until they find a better way to heat my house, it's attractive. And it pays a dividend
of 40 cents.
- Groupe Laperrière & Verreault Inc.
It is a major manufacturer in Quebec of machinery for the pulp and paper industry. Laurent Verreault, one of its co-founders, is a competent manager, with good vision. I regard it as a multinational company with tremendous growth potential.
- Regional Cablesystems Inc.
A cable TV operation with 250,000 subscribers in Canada, including half the cable subscribers in Newfoundland, it has been re-organized into a holding company and is planning to expand into the Caribbean. Over the last two years, it traded at $20 to $21; it's now around $9.
- Shermag Incorporated
A fully integrated Quebec furniture manufacturing company with timber rights, sawmills, manufacturing and distribution facilities, Shermag does 80 per cent of its business outside Canada, so it takes advantage of the low Canadian dollar. It traded in the mid to high teens for the last two years and now trades around $6.50. It has excellent management and trades at just 50 per cent of sales.
- Teck Cominco Limited
(formerly Teck Corporation)
After the takeover of Cominco, it is one of the cheapest of the diversified mining companies, involved in coal, zinc, copper and gold. It has good management. With an estimated net asset value of more than 15, it's trading at 101/4 and was trading at 173/4 in May. It's a good candidate for consolidation.
Kim Shannon
(www.canada.ml.com/mlim.html)
Kim Shannon is chief investment officer and senior vice-president of Merrill Lynch Investment Managers Canada Inc. "Any value manager believes the market has a tendency to excess," she says. "I think the market trades at 1.25 to 1.30 times its intrinsic value. We try to buy at 30 per cent less than a stock's intrinsic value. We'll sell some when it reaches 1, then more at 1.10, 1.15, 1.20. We try to get out before it reaches 1.25 or 1.30."
- Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd.
Shares have risen to $25 since last year, and I still expect the stock to rise to $33. The stock has always had unrealized gains.
- Empire Company Limited
Holding this food retailer is defensive and a cheaper way to play Sobeys. Expected return from here is 30 per cent, with a target of $46. The company currently holds $17 per share in cash after selling Hannaford Bros.
Co. and is looking for a strategic acquisition - perhaps A&P.
- Legacy Hotels Real Estate
Investment Trust and/or Fairmont Hotels & Resorts
These two inter-related stocks are a "contrary play." Fairmont buys, renovates and upgrades hotels. When they begin to generate steady cash flow, Fairmont arranges to flip the properties to Legacy, which can buy properties at a lower cost of capital. Fairmont then takes back a long-term management contract. Both companies have been affected by the recent attack on New York's World Trade Center and by a softer economic environment and are inexpensive today. Legacy currently yields 13.5 per cent, with a target price of $11 in better times, and there is some concern it will cut its dividend.
- inco Limited
The company provides a quarter of the world's supply of nickel and is the low-cost producer, with some of the best properties in the world. It has cut costs in recent years and expects to remove another $50 million of recurring costs in the near future, making it more profitable at lower commodity prices than in the past. The stock could rise to $32,
generating a 40 per cent return to patient investors.
- Quebecor world Inc.
The world's largest printer is well managed and is accomplished at making significant strategic acquisitions and effectively integrating them so that they start almost immediately to contribute to earnings. The recently acquired World Color Press will be fully integrated by year-end and related debt should be paid off, so the company will be ready for its next acquisition. The stock should rise to $51, producing a 30 per cent return.
Bob Tattersall
(www.saxonfunds.com)
Bob Tattersall is president of Howson Tattersall Investment Counsel Limited and portfolio manager of the Saxon Small Cap fund. "We're very numerate," he says. "If the numbers aren't there, we don't invest." The median holding of the Saxon Small Cap fund has a price-to-book-value ratio of 1.09, for example, compared with 2.31 for the median company in the TSE 300; a price-to-cash-flow ratio of 5.38 versus 9.50 on the TSE 300, and price-to-revenues of 0.34 versus 1.42 on the TSE 300.
- Foremost Industries Inc.
With its stock trading around
$3.85, the company manufactures drilling rigs, especially the new
hi-tech coiled-tubing models. The company historically has been
known for its Northern Terrain
vehicles and a feast-or-famine
order pattern from Russia. The
new revenue stream is much
more stable and more dependent
on North American oil activity.
The stock trades at 85 per cent
of book value and about four
times cash flow.
- Offshore Systems International Ltd.
With a market capitalization of
$12 million, the company manufactures and sells marine navigation equipment. One of its products
has been described as the most
significant advance in marine
navigation since the advent of radar 50 years ago. It's not cheap in terms of book value or revenues, but it has lots of order potential.
- SMK Speedy International Inc.
Operators of 333 Speedy Auto
Service and Car-X outlets
throughout North America,
SMK Speedy trades at a fraction
of its book value and the company has lots of cash.
- SR Telecom Inc.
Specializing in fixed wireless access solutions, SR Telecom designs and manufactures systems used by telecommunications providers worldwide. Trading at half its book value, it is a beaten-up tech stock with good prospects for recovery.
- Transat A.T. Inc.
Currently trading around $5.95 a share, Transat, which owns
Air Transat, is somewhat
speculative, as the airline is beset with company-specific problems (including a recent dead-stick
landing in the Azores),
industry-specific problems
caused by the recent terrorist
attacks in the United States and
Air Canada's price-cut strategy.
However, the company is an
integrated tour operator rather
than an airline and operates tour agencies and hotel rooms as potential profit centres. The company has a market cap of less than $200 million and revenues of almost $2 billion. Its book value is more than $7 a share.
Mark Thomson
(www.beutel-can.com)
Mark Thomson is senior vice-president of Beutel, Goodman & Company Ltd. in Toronto. Beutel, Goodman was formed in 1967 and is one of the oldest independent investment counselling firms in Canada. "Most of our business involves institutional investors such as pension funds," he says. "We look for companies with defensible franchises that are earning their cost of capital, with free cash flow, trading at a discount."
- Enbridge Inc.
This is an energy transportation and distribution company. The industry presents high barriers to entry. It has high return on equity and significant free cash flow. Even at current prices, it's still good value. We bought in 2000, now it's around $40 a share.
- Investors Group inc.
Canada's largest mutual fund company is a great franchise, with strong
management and significant free
cash flow.
- Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc.
As Saudi Arabia is to oil, Potash Corporation is to potash: the biggest and lowest-cost producer in the world. It has free cash flow. The cyclical nature of the industry means that now is an excellent opportunity to buy.
- TD Bank Financial Group
The foremost banking franchise in Canada, TD's discount brokerage offers a strong platform for future growth. Strong management has added value. Concerns with capital market exposure have depressed the stock.
- TrizecHahn Corporation
With 4.5 million square metres of U.S. office space and great assets, it sells at a discount to net asset value. New management is committed to shrinking the valuation gap. Because of
concerns about previous management, it became the third-cheapest of 30 real-estate companies in North America. Now, with new management, the company is committed to changing that situation.
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